A new United Nations report warns that without significant and immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures could rise by as much as 3.1°C (5.6°F) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. This projection far exceeds the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, risking severe and widespread climate impacts.
The annual Emissions Gap Report, which evaluates the gap between current policy commitments and the actions required to meet climate goals, indicates that the world is on track for dangerous levels of warming unless governments strengthen their emissions-reduction measures.
Current Trends and Emissions
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high of 57.1 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2023, marking a 1.3% increase from 2022. The report highlights that even under existing pledges, global warming is expected to reach 2.6°C to 2.8°C (4.7°F to 5°F) by 2100. These projections align with assessments from the past three years, signaling a persistent shortfall in action.
Anne Olhoff, the report’s chief scientific editor, emphasized the lack of substantial progress among G20 nations, which are collectively responsible for the majority of global emissions. “If we look at progress towards 2030 targets, especially of the G20 member states, they have not made significant advancements,” Olhoff stated.
Paris Agreement Goals at Risk
The world has already warmed by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F) since the pre-industrial era. Surpassing the 1.5°C threshold would amplify risks, including extreme weather events, sea level rise, and biodiversity loss.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres underscored the urgency of bridging the emissions gap, describing the current situation as “teetering on a planetary tightrope.” He warned, “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.”
Looking Ahead: COP29 and NDC Updates
Next month, global leaders will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the annual UN climate summit, COP29. The negotiations aim to build on last year’s agreement to phase out fossil fuels and strengthen commitments under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the emissions-cutting strategies required under the Paris Agreement. Updated NDCs are due in February 2025, making COP29 a critical platform for accelerating action.
The report stresses that to limit warming to 1.5°C, nations must achieve a collective 42% reduction in annual emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035. However, this goal is now viewed as increasingly out of reach.
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, called on countries to leverage the Baku talks to amplify their climate ambitions. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” she said, highlighting the tangible benefits of even incremental progress.
The findings serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for coordinated global action to combat climate change and adhere to the commitments of the Paris Agreement.