Negotiators at the COP29 climate summit in Baku face mounting pressure as the talks approach their final phase, with countries sharply divided over how much funding should be provided to developing nations to combat the effects of climate change. Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator, warned on Wednesday that “the hardest part begins now,” ahead of a new draft text expected at midnight.
The primary focus of this year’s United Nations climate conference is to establish a new financial goal to replace the $100 billion annual climate finance pledge made by developed countries in 2020—a target that was delivered two years late. However, frustration is growing as the negotiations remain deadlocked, with developing countries demanding significantly higher commitments from wealthy nations.
Developing Nations Call for Trillion-Dollar Commitment
The G77 group of over 130 developing nations, led by Uganda’s Adonia Ayebare, has proposed a $1.3 trillion annual public finance target. Ayebare expressed disappointment at the lack of meaningful counteroffers from developed nations, calling a rumored $300 billion proposal “embarrassing.”
“We are hearing $300 billion. If that is true, it’s really not acceptable,” Ayebare told Reuters.
While informal discussions have floated figures of $200 billion to $300 billion, the European Union has refrained from committing to a specific number. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra emphasized the need for a detailed framework before setting a financial target, likening the current process to pricing a “shopping basket” without knowing its contents.
The negotiations are further complicated by debates over whether major emerging economies, including China, should contribute to the new climate finance goal. Although a consensus appears to be forming that wealthier developing nations will not be legally obligated to pay, these discussions remain contentious.
Stalled Progress on Emission Reduction
While finance remains a central sticking point, talks on accelerating emissions cuts have proven equally challenging. Despite a landmark agreement in Dubai last year to transition away from fossil fuels, negotiators in Baku have struggled to advance that agenda.
Austria’s climate minister, Leonore Gewessler, criticized efforts led by Saudi Arabia to dilute commitments to mitigation, describing them as “very vocal” in pushing back against stronger language. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has previously characterized the Dubai agreement as a “menu of options,” suggesting that not all nations will prioritize phasing out fossil fuels.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais reinforced this stance in his address to the summit, describing oil and gas as “a gift from God.” Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev also defended the fossil fuel industry during his opening remarks, taking aim at Western critics.
Science Warns of Impending 1.5°C Threshold
Amid the stalled negotiations, scientists are increasingly warning that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C may soon be unattainable. French climatologist Robert Vautard cautioned that current trends could push global temperatures beyond this threshold as early as the 2030s.
“The urgency to act has never been greater,” said Vautard, echoing concerns that the slow pace of progress at COP29 risks undermining the world’s ability to address the climate crisis.
Countdown to Consensus
As the summit nears its notional Friday deadline, negotiators face the daunting task of condensing a sprawling 25-page draft document—filled with options for nearly every paragraph—into a concise two-page agreement. Host nation Azerbaijan is expected to release a more streamlined text overnight to facilitate the final push toward consensus.
“We will have shorter, more concise, straight-to-the-point texts,” said Rafiyev, signaling that the coming days will determine whether COP29 can deliver meaningful progress on climate finance and emission reductions—or merely highlight the persistent divides hindering global climate action.
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